10th-13th Five-Year Plans

Trends in Targets of Recent 5YPs

(the number of quantitative targets in each plan)

The Economy

New economic target introduced in the 13th 5YP:

• Labor Productivity: From 87,000 yuan per person in 2015 to 120,000 yuan per person in 2020.

Innovation

New innovation target introduced in the 13th 5YP:

• Sci-Tech Progress Contribution Rate (%): From 55.3% in 2015 to 60.0% in 2020.

Environment & Resources

New environmental targets introduced in the 13th 5YP:

• Land
  • Land Recently Developed: < 21.7 billion square meters
  • Forest Coverage: From 21.66% of China territory to 23.04% by 2020.

• Air Quality
  • Days of good/moderate air quality in cities:  > 80%
  • Decrease in PM2.5 concentration in cities: 18%

• Surface water quality
  • Equal or better than Type III water: > 70%
  • Type V water: < 5%

Social Welfare

New social welfare targets introduced in the 13th Five-Year Plan:

• Poverty alleviation in rural areas: Decline by 55.75 million people by 2020
• Average years of schooling for working age population: From 10.2 years in 2015 to 10.8 years by 2020.

Download national targets (10th-13th 5YP)

The post National Targets appeared first on Perfecting China, Inc..

Organizations and Key Individuals

The post The Drafting Process appeared first on Perfecting China, Inc..

Expanding Attention on the Green Economy

By Nicole White and Grace Hearty

If China’s Five-Year Plans (5YP) act as “large blinking neon arrows” pointing out the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) top priorities, then China appears to be more serious than in the past about moving towards a more sustainable growth model. After decades of prioritizing economic growth at all costs, the consistent increase in environmental targets, from 3 in the 10th 5YP to 16 in the recently-released 13th 5YP, reflects the CCP’s heightened commitment to tackling environmental issues. The most notable new targets in the 13th 5YP are related to surface water, soil, and air quality, as well as a cap on coal consumption.(Full Article)
This article was originally posted on http://cogitasia.com/

Perfecting China, Inc.: 13th Five-Year Plan

By Scott Kennedy and Christopher K. Johnson

This report analyzes the recently released 13th Five-Year Plan to provide a window into the evolving dynamics of China’s policy process, the trajectory of Chinese economic policies, and the implications of the plan for the business community, with a particular emphasis on the information and communications technology (ICT) and health care sectors.(Full Report)

State and Market in Contemporary China

By Scott Kennedy

The short essays in this volume, contributed by leading experts on Chinese economic policy, provide crisp and insightful analyses of the Chinese state’s approach toward markets, the role of key actors and institutions, the evolving nature of industrial policy and the effectiveness of China’s international commitments to constrain such practices, and a preview of the likely contents and significance of China’s 13th Five-Year Plan. (Full Report)

Contributors: Chen Ling, Nicholas Consonery, David Hathaway, Jesse Heatley, Jamie Horsley, Roselyn Hsueh, David Kelly, Arthur Kroeber, Dan Markus, Peter Martin, Oliver Melton, Margaret M. Pearson, Claire Reade, Daniel H. Rosen, D.D. Wu, Yan Chunlin

The Conflicting Currents of Beijing’s Five-Year Plan

By Robert Zoellick

The 13th five-year plan reflects Mr Xi’s consolidation of power and party revitalisation. The strategy appears to be to strengthen China Inc rather than to transform it. Meanwhile, centralised power will probably conflict with decentralised markets and local innovation right up until the 19th party congress in late 2017, when the president and a new standing committee of the politburo will need to reassess the drive to create a new growth model. The Soviet Union managed only 13 plans, so the party’s real aim is to make sure China reaches number 14. (Full Article)
This article was originally printed on ft.com

What are experts saying?

Explore the playlist below

Jim McGregor, APCO Worldwide

“For foreign companies I think we are looking at ‘reform and closing.’ We are looking at reforms that will help Chinese companies, but the room for helping foreign companies is getting more and more narrow.”
(Full Video)

Li Wan, Cummins, China

“I hope that China, with the initiative of the rule of law, can do the policy regulations better, with clarity, and make sure we enforce what we say.” 
(Full Video)

Lester Ross, WilmerHale, Beijing Office

“If the leadership had its way, even in the areas that are targeted for growth as part of the plan, they would like to see the role of multinational corporations diminished.”
(Full Video)

Arthur Kroeber, Gavekal Dragonomics

“One reason to be at least conditionally optimistic about the Chinese economy is despite the lack of direction at the top, there is an enormous amount of bottom up entrepreneurial activity that is very positive, but it needs more space to operate, and that’s where the uncertainty lies.”
(Full Video)

Yves Tiberghien, University of British Columbia

“Given the scale of the Chinese economy, given the fact that there is still a healthy consumption space, infrastructure need, and continued urbanization, there is a healthy base for 5-6% growth rate at the moment.”
(Full Video)

Wang Wen, Renmin University of China

“China’s rise is not a miracle, rather it is a result of the right planning. On the one hand, the right planning is very important, but on the other, implementation and coordination is also important, too.”
(Full Video)

The post Commentary appeared first on Perfecting China, Inc..

Provinces are supposed to draft five-year plans (5YP) that are consistent with the national plan, but there is always a gap between them, as well as variation across the country. As is common practice, provinces pursued higher GDP growth figures than the national government in the 12th and 13th 5YPs. The 31 provinces on average set an annual growth target of 7.7 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher than the national rate of just over 6.5 percent. However, this gap is trivial compared to the gap in the 12th 5YP, when the national rate was 7.0 percent and the provincial average was 10.3 percent, a whopping difference of 3.3 percentage points.

Note: Where provinces list a range (e.g. 7.0-7.5%), we use the average of the range for this figure (e.g. 7.25%)

Download the regional growth targets (12th and 13th 5YPs)

The post Regional Targets appeared first on Perfecting China, Inc..

The post The History of Plans appeared first on Perfecting China, Inc..